Does the global population exceed 10 billion?
The declining birthrate is expanding as a new culture
"Before getting on the platform (10 billion), it starts to decrease."
Nippon Foundation Counselor Tadashi Miyazaki
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Does the world population of 7.7 billion now exceed 10 billion? The United Nations predicts that it will reach a peak of 8.5 billion people in 2030, 9.7 billion people in 1950, and 11 billion people around 2100. However, the rapidly declining birthrate, especially in developed countries, is not odd. There is a growing belief that it will begin to decline before it reaches 10 billion. The international community is paying close attention to the changes in the world population, as it affects not only the shape of each country but also the future of food and mineral resources facing the crisis of global warming and depletion.
The story of the world population was suddenly brought up to the world as the birthrate declined faster than expected while reading related materials related to the women's awareness survey of eight countries conducted by the Nippon Foundation on the theme of "declining birthrate." The cause was that the impression of expansion was strengthened. From an amateur's point of view, the world's most prestigious UN population forecast may need to be reviewed sooner or later.
According to the "World Population Estimate 2019 Edition" released by the Ministry of Population of the United Nations Bureau of Economic and Social Affairs, the world population will increase mainly in nine countries including India, Nigeria and Pakistan. In particular, the population south of the Sahara Desert (Sub-Saharan Africa) will double from 1.06 billion in 2019 to 2.120 billion in 1950. On the other hand, the population has been declining in 27 countries and regions since 2010 due to the decline in the birth rate, and the population will decrease by more than 1% in 55 countries and regions over the next 50 years.
In response, a research team at the University of Washington predicted in July last year that "the world population will peak at about 9.7 billion in 2064 due to the decline in the birth rate, and will decrease to about 8.8 billion at the end of this century." announced. One of the rationale is the decrease in the total fertility rate, which indicates the average number of children a woman gives birth to between the ages of 15 and 49. The global average, which was 4.7 in 1950, will be halved to 2.4 in 2017 and will fall below 1.7 by 2100.
The recent topic "2050 World Population Decline" (Daryl Bricker, John Ibbitson = Bungei Haruaki) is based on the spread of girls' education and the rapid urbanization, and "2050, the population will decrease for the first time in human history." Once it starts to decrease, it will never increase again. "
The population replacement level (total fertility rate) at which the population remains stationary is 2.1. Japan has different mortality rates
2.07. The current fertility rate (19), which was divided by 2 in the 1970s, is 1.36. The population will begin to decline in 2011 and is projected to decline to about 60 million by 2100.
With a population of over 1.4 billion, the largest in the world, China's birth rate in 2018, when it switched from a "one-child" policy to a "two-child" policy in 2016, was 1.69. As with other economic indicators, many people question the accuracy of this country's statistics, and the actual birth rate is lower, and some say that the population has already begun to decline, but it is a think tank of the Chinese government. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also says that the population will begin to decline in 2015.
In any case, there is no doubt that the population will begin to decline sooner or later. According to the basic scenario of the United Nations, the population of China in 2100 will be about 1 billion. On the other hand, the University of Washington, mentioned above, estimates that the number will be halved to about 730 million. Some predict that the number will drop below 600 million and even 500 million. Given the declining population of Japan, China, and other countries, it seems correct to assume that the global population will begin to decline without reaching 10 billion.
Looking at the results of a women's awareness survey conducted in January, targeting a total of eight countries, including three countries in East Asia (Japan, China, South Korea), four European countries (Sweden, Denmark, France, Italy) and the United States, The average number of children in eight countries, which is ideal for children to be raised freely, is 45.2% for "2", which is by far the highest, followed by 23.6% for "3", 10.2% for "1", and "Children". "I don't need it" continues at 8.3%.
Measures such as participation of the elderly, acceptance of immigrants, participation of women, and utilization of AI are being discussed as means to solve the labor shortage caused by the declining birthrate. It goes without saying that the increase in working women is the most important factor, and from the figures, it seems that there is ample room for the birth rate to rise if the environment is in place.
However, as the social environment improves and the number of working women increases, the unmarried rate rises and late marriages progress, and on the contrary, the declining birthrate is accelerating. It has been reported that such a phenomenon has already occurred in Finland, an advanced welfare country, and lively discussions are continuing with words such as "a trap for declining birthrate" or "it cannot be restored if the birth rate falls below 1.5".
From a broader perspective, a new “declining birthrate culture” that values a childless life and one child may have begun to take root. In any case, the issue of population and declining birthrate is difficult because there are too many issues. I would like to pay attention to the movements of each country and the recommendations of experts.
